July 4th, 2008
Written by Sunil Rajak
Sandeep Mukherjee and Abdulqadir Navsariwala also contributed to this note.
Fuel Efficient Vehicles supply Constraint Plays Spoilsport
Jun08 monthly auto sales turned out to be much worse with most of US automakers sales declining in double digit. In addition to negative macroeconomic environment of record high crude oil price, weakened housing industry, and lower consumer sentiment, supply constraint of compact fuel efficient cars at many automakers further precipitated the the sales decline. Secondary aftereffects of higher gas prices is resulting in lower resale value of pre-owned pick-ups and trucks causing restricted trade-ins for more fuel efficient vehicles. Moreover, number of selling days was three days lower in Jun08 than in Jun07, which also contributed to lower sales volume across the industry. read more…
June 5th, 2008
Written by Nilanjan Das
Of the S&P500 stocks, Gridstone covers 370 companies. We offer full coverage overlap in the Consumer Services and Nondurables (CSND), Consumer Durables, Technology, Telecom, Energy and Utilities sectors and majority overlap in Financial Services and Industrials sectors. We are not yet covering any stocks in the Materials and Health Care sectors. This note looks at the sectoral quarterly earnings trend since Sept-06 and YoY growth in diluted EPS since Sept-07 of the S&P500 companies in the Gridstone universe. read more…
May 7th, 2008
Written by Sunil Rajak
Sandeep Mukherjee and Sneha Khatri also contributed to this note.
Japanese automakers march ahead as industry shifts gear
US automakers continued to struggle in a challenging environment for yet another consecutive month. The main cause of concern for the automakers was the rising crude oil prices. The industry is witnessing rather a sharp shift in sales from SUVs, trucks and luxury sedans towards fuel-efficient, compact cars and crossovers due to oil prices hitting as high as $120 per barrel. This trend is visible across all players. Consumer sentiment continues to be hurt by the tightened credit lending norms in addition to increased oil prices.
Among US automakers, GM posted sales decline of 16.3%, while F reported a sales decline of 12.2%. However, among the Japanese automakers, HMC posted sales increase of 6.9%, NSANY reported sales growth of 6.7% and TM reported sales increase of 3.4%. DAI reported sales decline of 3%. These increases were largely due to their significant presence in compact, subcompact and hybrid vehicles. Truck division for all the automakers reported decline in sales. The US industry recorded an estimated seasonal adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 14.7 M units of cars and light trucks for the period ending Apr08.
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April 11th, 2008
Written by Sunil Rajak
Sandeep Mukherjee and Abdulqadir Navsariwala also contributed to this note.
No sign of market pickup: Mar08 sales plummet across all major players
US automakers reported a decline of 12% in overall sales in a market environment marked by tightened credit lending norms, higher gasoline prices, and weakened housing and construction activities cumulating in weak consumer sentiments. Not surprisingly, all the major automakers reported negative sales growth. The car segment continued to perform relatively better driven by small fuel-efficient cars with respect to truck, SUV and pickup segment, Mar08 results reflect increased consumer preferences for fuel-efficient and smaller vehicles.
Among US automakers, GM posted sales decline of 19.2%, while F reported a sales decline of 14.3%. In non-US automakers, HMC posted sales decline of 3.2% and TM reporting sales decline of 10.3%. Truck division for all the automakers reported decline in sales. Notably, Mar08 had only 26 selling days compared to 28 selling days in Mar07. The US industry recorded an estimated seasonal adjusted annual rate (SAAR) in the range of 15.2 – 15.3 M units of cars and light trucks for the period ending Mar08.
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March 5th, 2008
Written by Sunil Rajak
Sandeep Mukherjee and Sneha Khatri also contributed to this note.
Profitability likely to be under pressure as truck sales continue downward slide
US automakers continued to record increased sales of fuel-efficient small and midsized cars. The month witnessed plummeting sales of SUVs, trucks and large cars as consumers continue to hold back big ticket purchases due to a weak credit environment and housing market and record high energy prices. Automakers continue to have a cautious approach and have reduced their next quarter production levels.
Among US automakers, GM posted a decline of 16.7% in sales while F reported a decline of 6.9% in vehicle sales with sharp decline in truck sales. Non-US automakers had a different story. HMC and NSANY reported sales growth along with truck sales growth while TM reported a decline in vehicle sales despite strong performance of its fuel-efficient subcompact vehicles. The US industry recorded an estimated seasonal adjusted annual rate (SAAR) in the range of 15.5 – 15.8 M units of cars and light trucks in Feb08. read more…
February 5th, 2008
Written by Sunil Rajak
Sandeep Mukherjee and Sneha Khatri also contributed to this Note
Sales Mix Shifts towards Passenger Cars
Most of U.S. automakers, with an exception of the market leader GM, reported decline in y/y sales during January 08. Automakers reported a decline of 4.4% y/y in total light vehicle sales to 1.04 M units. The industry witnessed discernible product mix shift towards passenger cars vis-à-vis light trucks, given the stressed credit market, housing and construction sectors and higher fuel price levels. Market players with strong product line up in the car segment benefited from this product mix shift.
Among US automakers, GM posted an increase of 2.1% in sales while Ford reported 4.1% y/y decline in sales with both car and truck sales declining. US automakers increased their market share in US to 51.2% from 50.6%. Non-US automakers reported decline in sales as well as 30 bps decline in their market share to 41.9% from 42.1%. The US industry recorded an estimated seasonal adjusted annual rate (SAAR) in the range of 15.2 – 15.5 M units of cars and light trucks in Jan08. read more…
January 4th, 2008
Written by Sunil Rajak
Sandeep Mukherjee and Sneha Khatri also contributed to this Note
Holiday season could not reverse downward US auto sales trend
U.S. auto sales in December 07 continued its declining y/y trend amidst tight consumer spend environment as illustrated by housing market downturn marked by price correction and lowest number of home starts in more than a decade, and increasing gasoline prices, with crude oil futures touching $100 per barrel.
Among the U.S. automakers, GM recorded sales decline due to lower fleet sales, while Ford sales declined primarily due to lower retail sales, even as they ended with lower inventory levels. Sales of Japanese automakers also declined as TM recorded sales decline due to reduced passenger car and light truck sales. Nissan Motor reported sales decline of truck segment and car segment went down marginally. Honda Motor recorded increase in sales volume for its car segment while truck sales declined. The month closed with an estimated seasonal adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 16.6 M unit vehicles sold. read more…
December 5th, 2007
Written by Sunil Rajak
Bhushan Khushalani also contributed to this Note
Mixed macroeconomic environment affects major automakers differently
US auto sales faltered in November 07 as the macroeconomic environment displayed mixed signals comprising of continued housing industry downturn marked by lowest single family home starts since 1991, soaring fuel prices, rising food prices and dip in consumer confidence index on one hand, and growth in excess of 1% in employment rate and 3% in real income and a lower interest rate regime on the other. The month closed with an estimated seasonal adjusted annual rate (SAAR) in the range of 16.0 to 16.4 million unit vehicles sold.
US auto sales in the model transition month of November suggest mixed results for the US automakers with GM taking a hit in truck sales due to inventory shortage led by heavy sales down in the few past months and timing issue in fleet sales, while Ford Motor inched up marginally on the strength of fleet sales. Japanese automakers, particularly Nissan Motor and Honda Motor, have surged ahead with higher sales of fuel efficient compact vehicles and continued high level acceptability of hybrid vehicles. However, Toyota Motors grew marginally with decline in Toyota Division truck sales and Lexus Division sales.
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November 28th, 2007
Written by Sunil Rajak
Bhushan Khushalani also contributed to this Note
Economic headwinds continue from credit tightening and increase in energy prices
US auto sales in the month of October suggest US automakers are struggling to mitigate economic headwinds with new product launches in light truck segment and with higher incentives, while their Japanese counterparts have surged ahead with higher sales of fuel efficient compact vehicles and enhanced acceptance of hybrid vehicles.
Gridstone Research tracks monthly sales data reported by the top Automakers, and using the data we have analyzed here sales performance of the top 5 Auto companies for the month of October 07.
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